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00:13:39 ER: okay, steam and discord can't connect but I can browse the web
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06:32:23 syv: Someone sent me a twitter video of a man claimed to be Russian poking a downed UAV camera.
06:32:43 syv: The UAV supposedly being a suicide drone, which promptly explodes and kills him.
06:33:29 syv: *poking it with a big stick
06:34:44 syv: I just burned my tongue on hot soup :(
06:35:12 Devastator: Is that related to the previous statements?
06:35:18 Devastator: Yeah, I saw that one too.
06:48:16 syv: It's significant to me though
06:52:03 syv: I don't know what you're asking
06:52:14 syv: Do you think Ukraine will retake Crimea?
06:54:50 Devastator: Not sure. I do know they're really demolishing a lot of stuff with the attempted Russian offensvie.
06:55:09 Devastator: and a lot of it is the held-behind T-90Ms and T-80 BVs I meantioned before.
06:55:25 Devastator: They have a real shot of it.
06:57:07 Devastator: They're going to do some seroius damage sooner rather than later.
07:00:03 syv: It seens to me like taking Crimea is functionally the win condition.
07:00:32 syv: Not taking it is just depending on Russia collapsing/sanctions staying until positive regime change
07:01:36 Devastator: If they get a breakthrough to the Azov Sea there will be more pressure on the bridge.
07:01:50 Devastator: If they can break the bridge Crimea will eventually collapse.
07:03:21 syv: ...Siege of a landmass, heh.
07:03:46 Devastator: There's been more than a few examples.
07:03:58 syv: "Eventually" in the sense Ukraine and Russia would be staying in a simmering war for years?
07:04:15 Devastator: Oh, they're gonna be in a simmering war for years if Ukraine wins.
07:04:52 Devastator: IT's that them winning means no genocide.
07:05:13 syv: I was expecting a ceasefire to eventually be declared. Rocket attacks on Ukrainian cities would serve no purpose and could stop.
07:05:17 Devastator: Russia running out of money and being in a really bad shape will very much make things better.
07:05:34 Devastator: Russian ceasefires = Russia still fires missiles.
07:05:37 Devastator: they do that every single time.
07:05:49 syv: Yes, yes, it's human to punish enemies for the temerity of not losing.
07:06:21 syv: ...And in my defense I've not paid real attention to any prior russia vs X wars.
07:07:37 Devastator: I'll be straighforward, they weren't doing missiles but they were doing artillery all since 2014.
07:07:52 Devastator: including artillery on territory they held.
07:08:09 Devastator: Ukraine did some counterfire, but it was about 5% of the total rounds fired.
07:08:35 Devastator: Also, we're talking like 2000 rounds a year.
07:08:52 Devastator: not 20,000 rounds a week, which is what we're getting now.
07:09:47 Devastator: (gah, I need to check those numbers again.)
07:09:56 Devastator: (Relative that's right but I might have the time units wrong.
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18:28:52 Topic for #einsteinianroulette: Fleshorrors dream of feline BASS
18:28:52 Topic set by syv [Saturday 22 May 2021, 04:44:55]
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