03:19:29 MidJag has joined #einsteinianroulette
03:30:41 Devastator: just gotta read the forums for a minute.
03:31:03 Devastator: oh, you read that Arabs at War book, right?
03:31:20 MidJag: My lifes been nuts latelly
03:31:22 Devastator: Ahh, there was a bit on this battle.
03:31:33 Devastator: It's a good reminder that there's always a higher level of incompetence.
03:33:47 MidJag: On the subject of that I saw the Ukrainians captured some oligarch who chilled in Ukraine a lot. I forget his name, though Zemistov?
03:34:21 MidJag: I was way off. Medvedchuk
03:34:28 Devastator: Guy was under arrest for assisting in the looting of Crimea already.
03:34:55 Devastator: escaped just after the invasion, but apparently too effing dumb to figure out how to get out of the country.
03:35:23 Devastator: how shit do you have to be to not figure out how to leave a country during a full invasion with a jillion people on the roads?
03:35:34 MidJag: Yeah that's actually stunning
03:35:47 Devastator: also shows how much of a shit Putin gives to his friends.
03:37:05 Devastator: Trading him for captured civilians would be excellent. Wonder if Putin would take him up on that.
03:38:37 MidJag: Eh, trading captured civilians means you have to actually admit you have captured civilians.
03:39:20 Devastator: Nah, Zelynskyy got a kidnapped mayor back for seven conscripts, and neither of them were supposed to be there.
03:39:51 MidJag: Heh, fair point, I'm suprised a mayor was only worth seven conscripts
03:41:57 Devastator: Putin doesn't consider local leaders worth much, I guess.
03:42:15 Devastator: also, that foreign minister who was shot early on was actually trying to kill Zelynskyy with a gun.
03:42:49 MidJag: .....Has the world become a shitty bond movie and no one told me? did I miss a memo or something? Does Putin have a white cat he's been hiding?
03:43:49 Devastator: You saw his mansion.
03:44:05 MidJag: I just didn't expect the bond villian comparisons to be so literal
03:44:45 Devastator: anyway, don't worry,
MJ. Putin has to attack soon. Attrition casaulties are ridiculous so far, and those loitering munitions add attrition damage to russian artillery.
03:45:04 Devastator: really, if he doesn't attack, it turns into endless small-unit raids, which Ukrainians win badly at.
03:46:25 MidJag: Yeah, the ukrainians are really good at small unit tactics apperently
03:46:48 Devastator: it's called 'freedom'
03:48:16 Devastator: anyway, lemme finish up this post for Ambiguity, and then can do more Terranigma if you're interested.
03:48:38 MidJag: Sure, I'm not gonna stay up for too long I'm a bit sick but sure.
04:01:06 Devastator: Stream's up. I'll let it run for a minute or two.
04:03:10 MidJag: hmm, not a very lush amazon
04:04:55 MidJag: I do like ironic place names
04:06:37 MidJag: Intresting enemy design
04:07:48 MidJag: Heh, so kind of a gotcha weapon
04:08:12 MidJag: Don't you have a poision cure?
04:08:22 MidJag: Huh, I thought this water hurt you
04:14:57 MidJag: I'm sure it'll end well
04:15:14 MidJag: Not like that's what like 30% of all fairy tales tell you not to do.
04:15:29 MidJag: Are you using plants as flippers?
04:16:21 MidJag: Yes I rember being taught to swim by strapping giant leaves to my feet as well.
04:16:54 MidJag: Water isn't instant death.
04:17:28 MidJag: I'm not sure I will but all right
04:18:05 MidJag: I'm trying to think what he did.
04:18:37 MidJag: Is the weird thing that he talked to a plant?
04:19:06 MidJag: Heh, what is a leaf suit?
04:19:45 MidJag: It's kinda sad that a bunch of leaves are better armor then the cloak your girlfirend gave you
04:19:50 MidJag: Yeah I was gonna mention that
04:22:03 MidJag: So are magirocks awlays blue crystals? Or are theree hidden ones?
04:26:47 MidJag: Man if only ressurecting the world could be entierlly by hitting paraites with sticks.
04:26:58 MidJag: These are nice cut scenes
04:28:36 MidJag: That is facsinating honestlly
04:28:49 MidJag: Then again weren't RTS's considered that a for a while too?
04:31:33 MidJag: Hey you know my actual name. I could swear I've told you at some point
04:32:33 MidJag: It is funny I've got three names now, my normal name, my fraternity nickname, and
MJ
04:33:14 MidJag: Typically Doc, or my last name because it sounds German and I look German as fuck.
04:34:21 IronyOwl has joined #einsteinianroulette
04:34:34 Devastator: got the channel? I think it's Kofiman21, IIRC.
04:35:41 IronyOwl: Doesn't look familiar
04:37:06 MidJag: Uhh essentially we let a demon thing out of it's box, it maybe kinda freezes people, we find out we are on earth and through the magic of fast travel and tutorials restore the world.
04:37:40 MidJag: And then our girlfriend goes to do...something, I forget what.
04:39:24 IronyOwl: Might be why I was reminded of Golden Axe for some reason
04:40:00 MidJag: Have you tried hitting him more
dev?
04:41:13 MidJag: That cave texture specifically looked a lot like pokemon not sure why
04:41:47 MidJag: Also I found out recently pokemon is the single most succseful multimedia franchise ever.
04:44:32 MidJag: Yes, the first one was kind of a push ovver
04:46:39 MidJag: It's funny how the dude only pulls himself up with his arms
04:46:54 IronyOwl: His movement is weird in general
04:47:06 IronyOwl: His normal movement is like an aggressive powerwalk
04:47:35 MidJag: He wants to show he means buisness and make he sure he gets his steps in
04:48:33 MidJag: Well Irony what've you been up to? Haven't seen you in forever
04:49:42 MidJag: It's always a good place for a flame thrower, you just burn everyone who thinks it's a bad place.
04:50:08 IronyOwl: Got into Elden Ring despite my computer not being able to properly handle it
04:50:30 MidJag: I need to get that game, it looks fun as hell.
04:50:51 IronyOwl: It is, even with all the performance issues
04:51:15 MidJag: That's quite the magic.
04:53:21 MidJag: It's funny how he like assiertivelly plants his feet even while picking stuff up
04:56:01 IronyOwl: Can you climb down that pit?
04:56:22 MidJag: Can you do anything with that dragon head?
04:59:13 IronyOwl: Taking damage from projectiles as you fall is a dick move
05:00:50 MidJag: Oh cool climbing spikes.
05:01:06 MidJag: Man this dudes legs are essentially vestigial when it comes to climbing
05:02:59 MidJag: Save states are pretty great
05:03:53 MidJag: So this has a touch of metroidvania as well?
05:05:56 MidJag: Oh that's what that bird head thing does
05:06:03 MidJag: It's the exit of a tunnel
05:06:29 IronyOwl: Actually navigating it looks janky as hell
05:06:39 IronyOwl: But diving into a box to arrange your stuff looks cool
05:07:09 MidJag: It would be fun if you could walk around if you wanted to, horribly ineffecient but it would look pretty awesome
05:10:08 IronyOwl: What are magirocks, anyway?
05:12:33 MidJag: So they're actually useful collecitbals handy
05:15:02 MidJag: One thing I've liked in some games is when they warn you that your about to permentally leave an area, lessens the paranoia for me
05:18:33 IronyOwl: Of course the obnoxious bird cave has a bird boss
05:18:55 IronyOwl: Coulda been one of those stone knights!
05:19:03 MidJag: That would have been sick
05:19:47 MidJag: These are pretty complex cut scenes
05:21:02 MidJag: I mean this game came out shortly before I was born so I don't have a ton of frame of reference for what the SNES could do.
05:21:21 IronyOwl: This water effect is making my eyes bleed
05:21:27 MidJag: It's entierly possible this man is just hallucinating vividly and he's still just in the village
05:22:00 MidJag: Is that ever explained?
05:24:47 MidJag: Do we need to restore the life force of the wind?
05:27:21 IronyOwl: Haha, being delivered in a bundle
05:27:50 MidJag: When in doubt chuck a rock at it
05:28:14 MidJag: I like the idea of a wind god oversleeping because he missed some alarm
05:29:57 MidJag: heh, gulls or the shoe leather express
05:31:08 MidJag: Be pretty funny if I game let you just swim across an ocean
05:31:17 MidJag: I guess minecraft does.
05:32:18 IronyOwl: Sadly, most games use oceans as conveniently impassable barriers :(
05:33:35 MidJag: So where we before we went to afirca? South America?
05:35:11 IronyOwl: Wonder why that cactus is chattier than the one in the previous area
05:36:33 Devastator: Thanks for coming by.
05:36:46 Devastator: and thanks for watching. Terranigma is one of those all-time classics.
05:36:52 MidJag: No prob, it's fun to watch
05:37:37 Devastator: yeah, it's an experience. ;-p
05:37:44 Devastator: Really, though, it's one of my favorites.
05:38:03 Devastator: anyway, Irony, worried about Ukraine?
05:40:36 Devastator: I'm not going to say it's magically going to be okay, but the Russian army has problems that can't be solved by a general.
05:41:04 Devastator: no general can make the troops use better small-unit tactics.
05:41:29 Devastator: and Russia can either attack into equal force defenders with better weapons and tactics, or get whittled down by endless small-unit raids.
05:42:32 MidJag: Does Russia have theater general yet?
05:42:39 Devastator: Yes, Putin named one last week.
05:42:47 MidJag: Ah, I must have missed that
05:42:49 Devastator: the leader of the Southern Military District.
05:42:57 Devastator: after 40,000 casaulties.
05:43:10 MidJag: Always a winning proposition
05:43:28 Devastator: A good idea to do so after you've shot your bolt, mostly.
05:43:57 Devastator: most of those were by their best units, too, not just cannon fodder. And Russia simply doesn't have quality replacements.
05:44:01 MidJag: Is that a canadian expression? I've not heard shot your bolt before
05:44:12 Devastator: Not to my knowlege.
05:45:03 Devastator: They can probably scrape up enough tanks to replace their lossess at this point, but they'll be old T-72s. Might not have enough IFVs/APCs, etc. Or it'll be close.
05:45:24 Devastator: We'll probably see a few hundred T-62s after that for reinfocements, and then they'll be out of replacement tanks.
05:45:49 MidJag: Weren't T-62 made in like early soviet era?
05:46:49 Devastator: Those are not the heavily upgraded T-64s being used by the Ukrainians.
05:46:59 Devastator: T-62s are very close to garbage.
05:47:17 MidJag: Ah, so actual T-62's the kind their grandfather would have used
05:49:54 MidJag: Well the M72 will feel right at home.
05:50:07 MidJag: And the carl gustav for that matter
05:50:22 Devastator: and anything, really.
05:50:27 MidJag: ...Man there were a lot of old anti tank weapons made in the 60's.
05:50:34 Devastator: T-62s are back in the day when molotovs could score kills. ;-p
05:52:05 Devastator: when the armour was simple hardened steel.
05:54:31 IronyOwl: Well, I guess if you're gonna brag about beating the Nazis you might as well bring authentic props...
05:55:08 Devastator: ..while being the Nazis.
05:55:12 Devastator: god, it's like a checklist.
05:55:57 MidJag: For what being cartoonishilly bond villian like?
05:56:19 IronyOwl: I think a Bond villain would bring fancier tanks, not whatever was left in the attic
05:56:23 Devastator: everything that makes a nazi a nazi, do it.
05:56:28 Devastator: There were some fancy tanks.
05:56:31 Devastator: a unicorn showed up.
05:56:45 IronyOwl: Oh yeah, the uh... thing with the fancy radar or something?
05:56:46 Devastator: (a one-off T80 variant with an active defense system)
05:57:01 IronyOwl: Not a successful field test, I take it?
05:57:11 Devastator: 3 of the ~10 T-80 UK command tanks have been gotten.
05:57:24 Devastator: Yeah, perhaps. I think that one got killed while on a truck. ;-p
05:57:55 Devastator: They haven't used the Armatas, but I suspect they have nonfunctioning guns or zero armour or something.
05:58:33 MidJag: I saw that they were shipping the terminator tanks, but I don't recall seeing any footage of them
05:58:46 Devastator: they haven't been anywhere near anywhere.
05:59:31 MidJag: I figured they don't actually doo much.
05:59:37 MidJag: They do look cool though
06:01:03 Devastator: it'd get turned into beer money.
06:01:21 Devastator: there is a 2-day dead colonel streak going on.
06:02:54 MidJag: How is that even happening?
06:03:22 Devastator: two days ago was a raid, yesterday was artillery.
06:03:23 MidJag: It's not like napoleonic warfare where the officers leading a charge into cannon fire....right?
06:04:01 Devastator: there was some of that.
06:04:16 Devastator: the general they bagged at mariupol was basically doing that.
06:07:41 IronyOwl: You know anything about the numbers of troops involved?
06:09:37 Devastator: what do you want to know?
06:10:23 IronyOwl: What I *really* want to know is how much each side has left, and what the ratio has looked like up until now
06:10:31 IronyOwl: I know that's a complicated question, though
06:10:53 Devastator: Well, and you can't call this 100% accurate..
06:11:12 Devastator: There's a bunch of different necessary categories.
06:11:41 Devastator: in terms of 'trained regulars', Russia has about 1.5:1 in terms of mainline soldiers.
06:11:49 Devastator: and about 2:1 in terms of equipment.
06:12:21 Devastator: Ukraine has enough reservists and such to get equal or slightly superior numbers in terms of infantry, but some of them shouldn't count.
06:12:37 Devastator: mmm, well, really, 3:1 for equipment is a better ratio.
06:13:08 Devastator: So far, Ukraine has been slightly ahead of the odds ratios required to destroy all the russian heavy equipment before running out themselves, and has been killing infantry at about an equivalent rate.
06:13:16 Devastator: they've done about 20% damage or so to the attacking Russians.
06:13:33 Devastator: They've lost about 13-15% of their forces.
06:14:31 Devastator: Basically, they're winning, if not super quickly, and will do so as long as they can keep air defenses active. If they get enough russian artillery out, eventually the air force won't matter.
06:14:45 Devastator: Russia doesn't have the doctrine to win solely through air power, so they need ground forces and artillery.
06:14:59 IronyOwl: Those ratios look generous given the size discrepancy
06:15:11 Devastator: Ukraine has fully mobilized. Russia hasn't.
06:15:27 Devastator: also, Ukraine keeps more of it's population under arms, as a percentage.
06:16:13 Devastator: with russia you have to include a lot of security forces or unmobilized reservists to get up the numbers.
06:16:23 IronyOwl: So what, if anything, do you think Russia pulling back and reorganizing will change?
06:16:34 Devastator: They're fucked, basically.
06:17:06 Devastator: They can't win an attritional battle because they're getting very badly outskirmished.
06:17:12 Devastator: So they have to make attacks to win.
06:17:37 Devastator: If they make attacks to win, they lose quicker, but have some chances.
06:17:47 Devastator: at this time, a quick win with an attack is no longer possible.
06:18:09 Devastator: so basically they're fucked unless they get a lot of new troops.
06:18:17 Devastator: which they can do by one of three ways.
06:18:53 Devastator: they can mobilize, which will turbofuck their economy, lead to all kinds of funsies, and they don't have enough decent equipment or the ability to train reservists.
06:19:09 Devastator: Since they can't issue bonds, it'll lead to hyperinflation.
06:19:52 Devastator: They can try to mass-bribe people into signing up, which will be slightly less disruptive but be a good way to get their most loyal people murdered off.
06:20:11 Devastator: ..and might not get enough soldiers or lead to excessive pro-russian internal tension.
06:20:19 Devastator: ..and inflation, etc.
06:20:56 Devastator: Or they can commit lightly-armed security forces.
06:21:22 Devastator: Which isn't going to work and prooobably would be a good way to get replaced.
06:22:02 Devastator: Right now they can put a decent army together, but they don't have replacements of the quality they lost.
06:22:41 Devastator: The next batch is reservists/conscripts in barely-repaired T-72s and insufficient logistics.
06:23:02 Devastator: so basically, if Ukraine wins this battle, the next question isif Russia gets to keep it's gains following 2014.
06:25:31 IronyOwl: What do Ukrainian logistics look like?
06:25:41 Devastator: They have trouble. Significant issues.
06:25:51 Devastator: but it's far from fatal, mostly because they're defending.
06:26:29 Devastator: you don't need to make an advance of 100km. You need to make advances of like 20.
06:29:31 IronyOwl: So assuming Russia fails and goes home... how much of Ukraine is left?
06:32:31 IronyOwl: The eastern half of the country's been ravaged by war, defending themselves can't be cheap, and they've got a massive humanitarian crisis spilling out of the country
06:32:33 Devastator: more than you think, less than you hope. But they'll be more than a rump state.
06:37:17 IronyOwl: Mmm, well thanks for all that
06:38:12 Devastator: we're not talking 'all is well', but winning the first battle means there iwll be a Ukraine.
06:38:26 Devastator: winning the second battle means there will be an eastern ukraine.. and there's no reason to consider that impossible.
06:38:30 Devastator: we'll see about battle #3.
06:38:53 IronyOwl: I find it hard to believe Ukraine doesn't become a heavily fortified NATO bulwark after this
06:39:15 IronyOwl: They're never gonna be able to relax
06:39:25 Devastator: It might not even join.
06:40:39 Devastator: Might demand other security guarantees, might purchase significant amounts of equipment, etc.
06:40:46 Devastator: but if they break the Russian army, well..
06:40:51 Devastator: Russia can't actually make anything.
06:45:56 IronyOwl: Ukrainian counterinvasion, eh? XD
06:47:02 Devastator: No, it's more.. there isn't as much to fear.
06:47:13 Devastator: not many missiles left, etc.
06:50:45 MidJag: I saw Finland and Sweden were thinking about joining NATO sometime this summer
06:51:09 Devastator: That seems extremly likely.
06:53:14 MidJag: I guess that's gonna put that weird Swedish fighter jet in a weird position but ah well.
06:55:54 MidJag: Yeah, lemme find it, IIRC it's whole selling point is that it's cheaper then an F-16, but has close to it's abilities and it's not from NATO so it's more palatable to a lot of countries that like to play both sides. Lemme find the name of it
06:56:08 Devastator: there's no reason they couldn't field it.
06:56:22 Devastator: NATO does not restrict countries from making arms exports.
06:57:40 MidJag: I meant more of it's now from a NATO country so it's politics change in terms of countries who want to not send signals by buying it, not so much that anything else change
06:57:51 Devastator: I mean.. yes? But also no.
06:58:13 Devastator: It'll be fine, really. Particularly if 'not quite as good as a F-16' is the standard..
06:58:52 MidJag: Here we go. Saab JAS 39 Gripen
06:59:40 MidJag: Oh huh, it's fully NATO interopable anyway
07:05:03 Devastator: so you want more Teranigma? ;-p
07:05:08 Devastator: (not now, but later.)
07:06:40 Devastator: There's only I think, about seven or eight dungeons to go.
07:07:05 Devastator: and a lot of stuff that's not dungeon.
07:07:05 MidJag: Yeah the game seems to move a bit faster then Tale
07:09:35 Devastator: here's speedrun.com's interpretation of those pants.
07:10:57 Devastator: those pants they be something.
07:11:50 Devastator: heh, world record gets to where I am in under an hour.
07:13:27 MidJag: Alright I should go to bedf
07:13:55 Devastator: Goodnight, Jaggers.
07:14:57 Devastator: Irony, do you want me to poke you for the next session?
07:15:09 Devastator: I'm basically playing it 'whenever
MJ shows up.'
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08:04:37 Devastator: annoyed at a low-quality baseball youtuber misrepresenting my favorite player. ;-p
08:05:09 Devastator: No, he didn't get one of his best pitches from this other famous player. They both threw that sort of pitch, so they simply compared grips when they were in the same place at the same time.
08:05:27 Devastator: he threw that pitch years before that meeting. Learned it as part of his own interesting story.
08:05:43 Devastator: and it didn't 'complete' him, and there's another pitch which you could say that exact thing about with great accuracy!
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08:18:22 Topic for #einsteinianroulette: Fleshorrors dream of feline BASS
08:18:22 Topic set by syv [Saturday 22 May 2021, 04:44:55]
08:21:31 syv: It does mean things are less tactical here.
08:21:56 syv: I'd base that decision on whether you want us to be able to target specific Four Swords heroes in the finale.
08:22:25 Devastator: That's the issue, yes.
08:22:29 Devastator: I'm fine with it happening now.
08:22:34 Devastator: but I don't know if I want that in the finale.
08:22:44 Devastator: otoh, I don't know if you''ll have a decent shot without that ability in the finale.
08:22:58 Devastator: I know you can win, but it might be too hard or too luck-based.
08:23:32 syv: Basing it purely off of leaving your optioms open, you *could* say that we can target any specific person here, because this isn't a close-knit/prepared party.
08:24:37 syv: Then later you could say the 4S can't be specifically targeted because they work together, or you could say they can because Trence and gang work even better together or something.
08:24:55 syv: Or because they've got a lot of experience against the 4S
08:26:09 Devastator: I think I'll rescind the rule for two reasons.
08:26:21 Devastator: 1. People seem to have forgotten it, which means it is'nt something they like.
08:26:29 Devastator: 2. It feels more JRPG-ish to be able to target.
08:29:46 syv: I think it's been forgotten more because it's very rarely applied. We've had very few adventurer fights.
08:30:08 syv: I can think of the one we had with Arity.
08:30:16 syv: ...I don't recall any others.
08:31:02 syv: I suppose I lean towards rescinding it, because it makes the game less interactive, more luck based. Becomes more "just hit them until they die"
08:36:56 Devastator: okay, now gotta look up Trence's Bladeagon move list.
08:53:41 Devastator: I'm flattered that
NJW looked up the blade dragon move list.
09:29:01 syv: This feels very easy to screw up. I don't trust Dorren.
09:29:09 syv: But I don't think we can effectively focus him down.
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23:57:30 ER: apparently there's a dhaos in saltybet
23:58:50 ER: ah, he has absurdly huge health and instantly fullheals the moment he's not staggered
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